If you live in Florida, hurricane season is not a single event but a six-month stretch of checking the tropics, reading forecast graphics, and deciding when a storm deserves your attention. Most of the confusion comes from a few products that are easy to misread: the seven-day outlook, the forecast cone, and the difference between a watch and a warning. This guide explains each one using the National Hurricane Center’s own definitions, gives a simple checklist for what to do at each stage, and points to the official sources that should drive any decision.
When the season runs and when it peaks
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. Based on the 1991 to 2020 climate period, an average Atlantic season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The statistical peak is September 10, with most activity between mid-August and mid-October (NHC, Tropical Cyclone Climatology). Storms can and do form outside those dates, so the calendar is a guide to when to pay closer attention, not a guarantee of quiet.
For Floridians, that means October is still an active part of the season, and November storms are uncommon but possible. The checks below apply for the whole stretch.
Step 1: The Tropical Weather Outlook
The earliest official signal is the Tropical Weather Outlook, which covers disturbances that are not yet tropical cyclones. The NHC issues it every six hours during the season, at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC (8 PM, 2 AM, 8 AM, and 2 PM EDT). It gives two chances of formation for each disturbance: within 48 hours and within 7 days, each rounded to the nearest 10% and labeled low (0 to 30%), medium (40 to 60%), or high (70 to 100%) (NHC, Product Descriptions).
How to use it:
- A low chance far out in the Atlantic is worth noting, not acting on.
- A medium or high chance with a hatched area over the Caribbean, the Gulf, or near the Bahamas is a reason to check your supplies and your plan early.
- The outlook says where a system might form, not where it will go. Track forecasts only begin once the NHC starts issuing advisories.
Step 2: Advisories and the forecast cone
Once a storm forms, or when a disturbance threatens land within 72 hours, the NHC issues advisories. Atlantic public advisories normally come every six hours at 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM EDT, with intermediate advisories every three hours when coastal watches or warnings are in effect (NHC, Product Descriptions). Setting a reminder for those times is more useful than refreshing social media all day.
The cone is the most shared graphic and the most misread. The NHC defines it as the probable track of the storm’s center. It is built from circles along the forecast track, each sized so that two-thirds of the NHC’s official forecast errors over the previous five years fell inside it (NHC, Definition of the Track Forecast Cone). Three things follow from that definition:
- The center has roughly a one-in-three chance of ending up outside the cone at any given forecast time.
- The cone says nothing about the size of the storm. Wind, rain, and surge regularly extend well beyond it.
- The cone gets wider with time because forecasts get less certain further out.
How wide the 2026 cone is
The NHC publishes the circle sizes each year. For the 2026 Atlantic season, based on 2021 to 2025 errors:
| Forecast time | Cone circle radius (nautical miles) | Approximate statute miles |
|---|---|---|
| 12 hours | 25 | 29 |
| 24 hours | 39 | 45 |
| 36 hours | 49 | 56 |
| 48 hours | 62 | 71 |
| 72 hours | 95 | 109 |
| 96 hours | 134 | 154 |
| 120 hours (5 days) | 200 | 230 |
Radii from the NHC cone definition page; statute miles converted at 1 nautical mile = 1.15 miles and rounded. At five days, the circle is 200 nautical miles in radius, which is wider than the Florida peninsula. A five-day cone that clips your county means “pay attention,” not “you will be hit.”
Step 3: Watches and warnings
Watches and warnings are the official signals that conditions are coming to a specific stretch of coast. The National Weather Service defines them this way (NWS, Hurricane Watches and Warnings):
| Alert | What it means | Typical lead time |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical Storm Watch | Sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph possible | Within 48 hours |
| Hurricane Watch | Sustained winds of 74 mph or greater possible | 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds are expected |
| Storm Surge Watch | Life-threatening inundation from rising water possible | Generally within 48 hours |
| Tropical Storm Warning | Tropical storm conditions expected | Within 36 hours |
| Hurricane Warning | Hurricane conditions expected | 36 hours before tropical-storm-force winds |
| Storm Surge Warning | Life-threatening inundation expected | Generally within 36 hours |
The lead times are tied to tropical-storm-force winds, not to the storm’s arrival, because outdoor preparations become unsafe once those winds start. By the time a hurricane warning is posted, the NWS advises that preparations should be complete.
Category is about wind, not everything
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale rates hurricanes from Category 1 (74 to 95 mph sustained winds) to Category 5 (157 mph or higher). Categories 3, 4, and 5 are considered major hurricanes (NHC, Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). The scale measures wind only. It does not account for storm surge, rainfall flooding, or tornadoes, and a lower-category storm can still be deadly.
That matters most for water. Ready.gov notes that storm surge has historically been the leading cause of hurricane-related deaths in the United States (Ready.gov, Hurricanes). Inland flooding from heavy rain is another major hazard, and the advice to never drive through flooded roads applies here too.
Know your zone before a storm forms
Evacuation orders in Florida are issued by county officials, usually by evacuation zone. The Florida Division of Emergency Management’s Know Your Zone tool lets you look up your address. Zones are based on vulnerability to storm surge, so a home a few miles inland can be in a zone while one on higher ground near the coast is not. Mobile homes and unsafe structures are often told to evacuate regardless of zone. Look up your zone at the start of the season and write it down with your plan.
A stage-by-stage checklist
| Stage | What to check | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Start of season (June) | Your evacuation zone; insurance documents | Build or restock a kit; plan where you would go and how |
| Outlook shows medium or high chance near the Caribbean, Gulf, or Bahamas | Tropical Weather Outlook every six hours | Check supplies, medications, fuel, and cash; no need to change plans yet |
| Named storm with Florida in the 3 to 5 day cone | NHC advisories at 5 and 11, AM and PM | Finish shopping early; secure outdoor items; review your evacuation route |
| Watch issued for your area | NWS local office and county emergency management | Complete preparations; be ready to leave if ordered |
| Warning issued | County orders; local NWS updates | Preparations should be done; evacuate if told to |
| After the storm | County updates on roads, water, and power | Stay off flooded roads; wait for officials before returning |
What AtAGlanceInfo can and cannot do here
The dashboard shows current conditions and a short forecast for your location. It does not show hurricane tracks, cones, watches, or warnings, and it should never be your source for evacuation decisions. Use the National Hurricane Center, your local National Weather Service office, and your county emergency management agency. For reading everyday forecasts outside of storm season, see How to Read a 7-Day Weather Forecast and the morning weather checks guide.
Sources
- National Hurricane Center, Tropical Cyclone Climatology
- National Hurricane Center, Tropical Cyclone Product Descriptions
- National Hurricane Center, Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone
- National Hurricane Center, Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
- National Weather Service, Hurricane Watches and Warnings
- Ready.gov, Hurricanes
- Florida Division of Emergency Management, Know Your Zone